War, Climate, and Population Boom: Africa's Food Security on the Brink

Welcome to Globoil Post. In this edition of Globoil Post, we feature insights from Ipsit Chakrabarti, Managing Director at WASIL, who has over 25 years of experience in the FMCG sector across India and Africa. Ipsit explores the future of Africa’s food security, addressing the urgent steps required to meet the challenges posed by rapid population growth, climate change, and economic pressures.

1. Given the increasing population in the African continent, how do you see the future of food security in the region? What steps should be taken at both the policy and grassroots levels to address this challenge?

"Africa is facing a critical juncture as the population in the continent is projected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050. This rapid growth places immense pressure on already fragile food systems. As per a report published by Africa Center for Strategic Studies an estimated 149 million Africans in 38 African countries are experiencing some level of acute food insecurity at present. Sub-Saharan Africa is feeling the brunt of what has been coined “the perfect storm” – a food, fuel, and fertilizer crisis, caused by the war in Ukraine, post pandemic inflation, rising debt, and extreme weather. Governments need to urgently address the gap between demand and supply of food to ensure the nutrition needs of one billion people in Africa is met and human development is protected.

The primary step is for governments to address structural issues such as insecurity in farming regions. Conflict and people displacement are common in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa, and when farmers are unable to cultivate crops and their farms due to violence, food production is at loss. It is imperative that governments must work to stabilize these regions and protect agricultural land. This can ensure that farmers are able to return to their fields and resume production without any fear.

Infrastructure development is an equally critical aspect to be considered. Infrastructures such as roads, storage facilities, and transportation networks are inadequate and massively underdeveloped in many parts of Africa, leading to significant post-harvest losses as in the supply chain farmers are struggling to bring their produce to the market.

Supporting agro-industries is also essential. By investing in the production of quality seeds, agro-chemicals, and modern equipment for farming, governments all across Africa can create a more efficient and productive agricultural sector. In conjunction with these investments, farmer education programs can also be implemented to provide smallholder farmers with the knowledge and skills needed to improve yields and adopt sustainable business practices. For example, climate-smart techniques, such as conservation tillage and crop diversification, can help farmers increase their output while simultaneously preserving the environment.

The vast arable landmass and youthful population of Africa present an opportunity to see an agricultural revolution. However, this can only be implemented with long-term planning and coordinated efforts at the policy and grassroots levels. Governments must develop a 10- to 20-year roadmap focused on achieving self-sufficiency in food production."

2. As the African food market increasingly shifts towards territorial markets and local food systems, how can stakeholders across the agri-food industry better support smallholder farmers in accessing these markets, particularly in regions affected by climate change and economic instability?

"In the past four years we have seen high level of volatility and uncertainty in the global supply chain impacting food supply and prices. Countries have understood the importance of reducing dependence in the global supply chain and building resilience in food supply through a fundamental shift towards close-to-home food supply chains (‘territorial markets’). Today territorial market channels feed as much as 70% of the world’s population every day. Key participants in the territorial market are small-scale producers, processors and vendors, rooted in territories and communities, supporting each other. This ecosystem has multiple benefits including less usage of transport helping low carbon emission, lower entry barrier to new participants, open knowledge sharing, fresher produce, and cheaper price making food affordable. It is now well understood that a shift towards territorial markets offers a more resilient, robust, and equitable approach to food security, helps better income distribution, besides helping small and marginal farmers. However, African governments are not giving it enough policy attention.

One of the key challenges smallholder farmers face is the lack of transparent pricing mechanisms. This is where governments and private stakeholders must come together to develop transparent pricing mechanisms that provide real-time data on market prices, enabling farmers to make informed decisions. Mobile platforms and digital apps are a possible avenue to explore, which will give farmers access to price information and reduce the reliance on intermediaries. In addition to pricing mechanisms, cooperatives and governing bodies should be encouraged and supported. Cooperatives allow smallholder farmers to pool their resources, share knowledge, and negotiate better deals with buyers. They also provide a platform for collective action, giving farmers a stronger voice in policy discussions. Governments and NGOs should work to strengthen these cooperatives by providing access to finance, training, and technical support.

Many farmers lack the capital needed to invest in high-quality seeds, fertilizers, and modern farming equipment, limiting their ability to scale up production. Microcredit schemes, agricultural loans, and relevant insurance products can help farmers manage risk and invest in their farms, improving productivity and resilience to weather changes. As mentioned previously, smallholder farmers often struggle to get their produce to market due to poor road conditions and inadequate storage facilities. Governments and development organizations must prioritize investment in basic infrastructure to ensure that farmers can transport their goods. This is especially important in African regions that are prone to extreme weather events, and the investment here can help provide better storage and transport options that can prevent food from going to waste during these exogenous shocks.

Last but not least, public-private partnerships also have a role to play in supporting smallholder farmers. Agribusinesses, NGOs, and governments can collaborate to provide technical assistance to establish value chains that integrate smallholders, and create markets for their products."

3. What innovative technologies or practices do you believe will be most impactful in transforming Africa's food systems to sustainably meet the growing demands and challenges posed by climate change, population growth, and economic pressures?

"Africa’s agricultural sector faces immense challenges such as climate change, population growth, and economic pressures. However, a combination of innovative technologies and practices can help transform the continent’s food systems to sustainably meet these growing demands. Among the most impactful solutions are microfinance, vocational education, tech-enabled platforms, and advancements in agricultural inputs such as high-yielding seeds and improved agrochemicals.

Access to financial services is extremely important for smallholder farmers, who often lack the physical and human capital needed to invest in modern farming practices. Microfinance institutions provide these farmers with affordable credit. This enables them to purchase essential inputs like seeds, fertilizers, and tools that can increase productivity.

In many parts of Africa, farmers still rely on traditional methods that are often inefficient and unsustainable. Vocational programs focused on modern agricultural techniques can equip farmers with the education and skills they need to improve yields while being sustainable on their end. Education programs in addition can cover things from soil management and irrigation techniques to pest control and crop diversification which will be beneficial towards helping farmers increase productivity and reduce waste.

Tech-enabled platforms can deliver agricultural training remotely, providing farmers with access to real-time information on best practices, market trends, and weather forecasts. This form of education is highly customizable, ensuring that farmers in different regions can receive training tailored to their needs and requirements. Similarly, digital trading platforms can also play a role in connecting farmers directly with buyers, reducing the need for intermediaries and allowing farmers to secure better prices.

Lastly, advancements in agricultural inputs, particularly high-yielding seeds and improved fertilizers, will be of utmost importance in boosting productivity in Africa’s agricultural sector. High-yielding seeds are designed to be more resistant to pests, diseases, and harsh weather conditions. It will enable farmers to produce more food with fewer resources. In conjunction with better fertilizers and agrochemicals, these type of seeds can significantly improve crop yields and help farmers meet the growing demand for food, even in regions with poor soil quality or limited access to water."